A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
